The war in Ukraine will exceed half a million soldiers killed in combat in its fifth year according to analysts

This happens in a context in which the president of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putincelebrates the advances made by Russian troops on the front, with limited progress in the region of Zaporizhiaas well as in key territories such as Donetsk, Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk.

Although the number of dead soldiers remains a guarded secret by both countries, some estimates indicate that Ukraine has lost more soldiers in proportion to its population, although Russian losses would be much higher in absolute terms.

The most conservative count of dead Russian fighters is being carried out by the independent Russian media Mediazonawith the support of the Russian service of the BBC. With this count, 200,186 dead Russian soldiers have been verified to date.

This registry of the deceased, prepared by this media independent of the Russian executive, is based on obituaries, burials in cemeteries, publications on social networks by relatives, inheritance records and other official Russian data.

In any case, the journalists in charge of reporting this amount warn that this figure is “just a floor, not a ceiling”, which is why they point out that there has been a greater number of deaths.

The harshest figures come from the study carried out by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)based in Washington, which provides a much harsher number in terms of human losses.

Its latest report estimates that Russia could have suffered up to 325,000 dead on the battlefield and a total of 1.2 million casualties if there are injuries and deaths. Seth Jones, co-author of the study, has assured that “the number of deaths caused by this war is shocking.”

“No great power has suffered losses close to these since the Second World War,” he stressed in statements to the New York Times.

This week, the Russian president’s agenda has been full of acts related to this war conflict. On Monday he met in the Kremlin with widows of fallen soldiers, intending to show his respect for “heroically defending the homeland.”

In parallel, this Tuesday commemorated the fourth anniversary of the war with a speech before the Federal Security Service (FSB), in which he assured that Russian intelligence must do more to protect the national territory against Ukrainian attacks.

On the part of the Russian government, the military capacity to confront this conflict is maintained, according to the report presented by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) when presenting its annual report Military Balance 2026.

“There are few signs that Russia is losing strength in its fifth year of conflict and the threat to the continent is growing,” said IISS director Bastian Giegerich, four years after the Russian invasion of the former Soviet republic.

kyiv suffers military shortage

The situation for the Ukrainian executive is not very different from what the Kremlin has to face. The kyiv authorities, like the Russian ones, they stay airtight regarding military losses.

The Ukrainian government has restricted access to the country’s demographic data, following the Russian strategy of hiding the real number of deaths.

The report of CSIS makes an estimate in which around 600,000 Ukrainian soldiers would have turned out injured since the beginning of the invasion. According to this same study, the death toll would approach 150,000visibly below the number of Russian deaths.

The main adversity that the authorities in kyiv are said to have to face is the limited capacity to replace the losses they suffer on the battle front, as Jones has warned in statements collected by the NOW.

“The main problem for Ukraine is its low number of troops. There is no doubt about it,” he stressed.

Currently, the recruitment system carried out by kyiv is progressing slowly and desertions further strain the availability of troops.

A study carried out by Eurostat It is estimated that between 600,000 and 850,000 Ukrainian men of military service age (approximately between 18 and 60 years old) have left Ukraine for European countries since the beginning of the war, despite exit restrictions imposed by the authorities.

On the part of the Ukrainian government, The strategy is to try to inflict the greatest number of losses on the Russian army.making Russia unable to maintain this war of attrition over time.

Furthermore, in parallel to this, the Ukrainian minister Mikhail Fedorov He assured that in December Russia lost or suffered serious injuries to 35,000 troops, a figure similar to the monthly average of Russian recruitment last year.

kyiv’s stated objective is to increase this attrition up to 50,000 monthly cancellationswith the intention of “imposing costs that Russia cannot bear,” summarized Fedorov.

To compensate for the disadvantage in the ability to replenish fighters at the rate that Moscow does, Ukraine has sought to inflict losses on the enemy at a rate equal to or greater than Russia can replenish.

Although that goal was elusive for much of the war, Ukrainian and European officials say the balance may be shifting.

In January, 225 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded for every square mile of territory conquered, according to a study by the Institute for the Study of War.

While Putin commemorated the start of the war, events were held from kyiv in tribute to the victims and various European authorities went to accompany Volodímir ZelenskiUkrainian president.

The Ukrainian president received the president of the European Council in the capital, kyiv, Antonio Costaalready the president of the Commission, Ursula Von der Leyenwhere Zelensky stressed that Ukraine “has not given up” and will do everything possible to achieve “peace and guarantee justice,” he declared in a morning speech.

He also visited a makeshift memorial honoring war victims, where he expressed his hope that the president of United States, Donald Trumpmake a visit to Ukrainian territory, so that you can see first-hand the suffering caused by the war.