The Order that emerged from the end of the Second World War is moribund and the process is irreversible. The future remains uncertain, the contours of the new Order are opaque and the signs are not likely to leave us at ease. The divorce of nations, and the end of the concert of nations, as happened before the two great world conflicts of the 20th century, is increasingly a reality.
The 2025 US National Security Strategy-NSS is proof of the thinking of the new Administration in Washington on American nationalism and isolationism. It is the definitive assumption of the change in the American strategic paradigm that emerged after the war.
The NSS clearly expresses a return to the old 19th century concept of “Peace through Strength” and more seriously a return to the “Monroe Doctrine” as one of the main objectives of American strategy. It definitely represents the shift in American strategic interests towards the Indian/Pacific axis. Europe is no longer a priority.
The document assumes that Europe is no longer a reliable ally, and elects the European Union as the main adversary, seen as a project of liberal and internationalist elites. He accuses European economies of being in decline, due to excessive regulation, and suggests that some European countries are at risk of a “civilizational erasure”.
At the Munich security conference in February this year, American Vice President JD Vance was very clear and harsh in his criticism of European countries and the EU. Restrictions on freedoms of religion and conscience and anti-democratic principles were, in his words, major sins in Europe.
Conspiracy theories, so popular on the American radical right, are now a normality on the European radical right, namely the “great replacement” theory. Interestingly, it appears again on the shelves of international bookstores, the book The Camp of the Saintsby French writer Jean Raspail. Written in 1973, it is a dystopian novel and a libel to the theory of the “Great Replacement”, now so popular in the American and European radical right.
For Europeans, the NSS is completely unacceptable, it is full of regrettable phrases, and some statements are a direct interference in European electoral processes. The objective of the current American Administration is to create chaos and the economic weakening of Europe while simultaneously threatening support for European patriotic parties.
There are dissenting voices in America, particularly in the areas of finance and industry, with strong criticism of the document and Donald Trump. Many are critical of the claims that Europe is heading towards “civilizational erasure”, stating that a weak Europe is a huge risk for America. They emphasize that a fragmented Europe will cause more damage than anyone else, because Europeans are a greater ally in every way, including common values, which are truly the most important.
Alliances, however solid they may seem, are not perpetual. This American strategic vision, marked by nationalism and isolationism, is a huge mistake. The transatlantic rupture could have future negative consequences, including for American interests. Despite the political and strategic divergences of the moment, the strength of the cultural ties that unite Europe and America, forged over centuries, is undeniable. Giving up on America will always be a mistake. Europe continues to need America, just as the United States benefits from the European partnership.
Portugal is not a peripheral country, contrary to what many claim, our geography, the Atlantic and the Azores Sea, are our strategic added value. Our country is in the Western Hemisphere, we are members of the Atlantic Alliance, and America is a priority partner and ally. Our diplomacy will have to be very careful in analyzing the new American security strategy.
Lieutenant General Pilav (REF). Member of SEDES OS&D