a fragile peace agreement that falsely closes the conflict that structures the Middle East

“In perspective, the Trump peace settlement is best described as a transactional ceasefire framework, not as a peace agreement in the strategic or political sense,” the Palestinian analyst emphasizes. Ibrahim Dalalshadirector of the Horizon Center for Political Studies in Ramallah. “It would be a mistake to call the plan a ‘failure,’ but it would be equally misleading to call it peace. It is a violence reduction mechanism, not a conflict resolution strategy.”

Dalalsha considers that the main function of the agreement “was limited but significant: to secure the release of Israeli hostages and to stop large-scale and indiscriminate military operations, notably the massive bombing of Gaza. In that sense, it managed to reduce the magnitude of violence and prevent further mass casualties. However, there have been numerous violations.”

Because the cessation of hostilities barely lasted. Since the first phase of Trump’s plan came into effect, Israeli forces have launched almost 800 attacks on the Palestinian enclave, resulting in the deaths of more than 370 people, according to the Gaza Ministry of Health. In parallel, Israel is slowing down the entry of humanitarian aid through the Rafah corridor, which remains firmly closed despite the fact that the agreement contemplated its immediate reopening.

Israel also occupies 53% of Gaza. Hamas, on the other hand, had to fight other Gazan armed groups to regain its authority in the areas that Israeli troops abandoned under the peace plan. In fact, in a dispute that remains unclear, the Palestinian Islamist group managed to get rid of Yasser Abu Shababthe leader of Abu Shabab, one of the rival militias. He was a figure well connected to the Israeli intelligence services.

new frontier

The Yellow Line marks the new dividing line. The Chief of the General Staff of the Israeli Army, Eyal Zamirassures that this is the new official border. A message that clashes head-on with the position of the Trump Administration, whose special envoy, Aryeh Lightstonesays he seeks a united Gaza, where Gazans govern themselves, as their Arab allies demand.

Many doubt the White House’s declaration of intent because, as pointed out Abdel Razekco-director of the Palestinian Institute of Public Diplomacy (PIPD), “although Trump is presented as someone who can make progress, the reality is that US military and political support for Israel has never been stronger, and we cannot trust the US to be the one to pressure Israel to truly end its genocide and withdraw.”

Furthermore, the peace agreement remains stalled. There is no news on the composition, role or mandate that the International Stabilization Force (ISF) in charge of ensuring the security of Gaza will have. “Israel insists on a mandate focused on law enforcement with the goal of disarming Hamas, while Hamas—and several potential contributors—envision a disengagement or stabilization force operating in a peacekeeping capacity,” Dalalsha explains.

There is no news about the technical Palestinian Government that will take the reins of Gaza to replace Hamas, nor about the members of the Peace Board in charge of supervising the administration of the Strip. A Peace Board of which, finally, the former British Prime Minister will not be a part Tony Blairvetoed by Arab countries, which still remember their involvement in the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

“Israel decides who would or would not be in a force supposedly destined to implement its withdrawal,” denounces Abdel Razek, in clear reference to the Türkiye of Recep Tayyip Erdoganexcluded by the United States at the request of the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. “Israel also decides who can or cannot be part of a Palestinian political leadership, from denying the release of political prisoners like Marwan Barghouti to financing uncontrolled militias like Abu Shabab,” insists the analyst.

“The agreement did not resolve or seriously address the core structural problems of the conflict: governance of Gaza, law enforcement, disarmament, border crossings, reconstruction or political reintegration of Gaza under the Palestinian Authority,” regrets Dalalsha. “Moreover, both Israel and Hamas accepted the settlement not because it coincided with their long-term positions, but because, at the time, neither was in a position to reject it.”

In theory, Trump’s peace agreement leads to the establishment of a Palestinian state. A condition that Washington’s other major regional ally, Saudi Arabia, demands to normalize its diplomatic relations with Israel. There is only one problem, that Israel, as Abdel Razek points out, wants “the maximum amount of land with the minimum number of Palestinians” and flatly rejects its self-determination.

While the agreement remains at a standstill, Israel is developing the part of Gaza that it maintains under its control with the assistance of the United States, which seeks financing from the petro-monarchies of the Gulf. The Israeli Government intends to build a “new Gaza”, rehabilitate its part of the enclave. Although it is the Trump Administration that is leading the reconstruction efforts from the Joint Civil-Military Coordination Center in Kiryat Gat.

“Israel has long instrumentalized ‘peace processes’, negotiation periods and supposed ‘road maps’ and ‘plans’ to advance colonial facts on the ground, impose fait accomplis and establish new red lines, expanding land grabbing, annexation and dispossession of Palestinians,” Abdel Razek denounces. “This time is no different.”

Second phase

The president of the United States intends to promote in the coming weeks the second phase of the peace agreement, endorsed in mid-November by the UN Security Council. Paralysis will continue to reign in Gaza until Trump announces the next step.

The White House plan contemplates that Hamas hand over its weapons and that Israel undertakes a total withdrawal from the Strip. Two objectives, today, chimerical. “Complete disarmament, as Israel demands, is very unlikely in the short or medium term,” explains Dalalsha. “Hamas has reiterated that it is willing to explore alternative solutions, such as freezing the use of weapons, storing weapons under international supervision or accepting monitoring mechanisms.”

“Because for Hamas, accepting disarmament would require a comprehensive political package: guarantees of political survival, inclusion in reformed Palestinian institutions, a role within the framework of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and a credible path to national legitimacy,” adds Dalalsh. “None of these issues are currently on the table.”

It is true that Trump can boast of partial progress. Hamas handed over to Israel the twenty live hostages and the bodies of all the deceased hostages. The only thing missing is the return of the police officer’s body Ran Gvilione of the 1,200 victims of the 7-O terrorist attack. Israel, for its part, kept its end of the deal by returning hundreds of Palestinian prisoners detained before and during the war in Gaza.

But there is a risk that the peace agreement could be blown up, because in recent weeks Israel has launched several sensitive attacks on the Hamas leadership. The last one, carried out last Saturday, ended the life of the commander Raed Saadnumber two in the group’s military arm. Netanyahu accused him of being “the main figure in charge of Hamas’ effort to strengthen and arm itself within the Strip”, responsible for the “remilitarization” of the Al Qassam Brigades.

Gaza suffers lebanization. Constant and targeted Israeli attacks that violate the terms of the ceasefire agreement, as is happening in southern Lebanon and its capital, Beirut. Saad is no exception; It’s the norm. Israel did something similar last November. killed Haytham Al Tabtabaione of Hezbollah’s military leaders.

“Continued Israeli violations of the ceasefire agreement… and recent assassinations targeting Saad and others threaten the viability of the agreement,” he warned last weekend. Jalil al Hayathe head of the Hamas negotiating team and leader in pectoral of the organization since the death of Yahya Sinwar.

“Hamas is not in a position to launch a large-scale military offensive,” Dalalsha points out, “but it can thwart Israeli efforts to impose alternative governance structures, make it extremely difficult for any International Stabilization Force to operate effectively, and maintain influence.” in fact and security control on the ground”.

The White House does not seem to be too happy that Netanyahu jeopardizes a peace agreement that Trump boasts about so much. According to the digital AxiosTrump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoffand the president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushnerpromoters of the ceasefire sealed in October, conveyed their anger to the Israeli prime minister last week.

Trump will host Netanyahu at the end of December at Mar-a-Lago. It will be a crucial appointment, since their agendas for the region have increasingly fewer points in common. Syria is the most paradigmatic example of the disagreement. The American president wants to promote the stabilization of the country under the authority of the former jihadist leader Ahmed al Sharabut the Israeli prime minister does not miss the opportunity to falter the process at every step.