Analysts suggest that Bitcoin’s lack of movement is due to thin weekend liquidity. Traders are watching the 20-day moving average closely. If Bitcoin breaks above $90,000, it could quickly clear a path toward $105,000. However, repeated failure to break higher may lead to a retest of the $83,000 support level.
The broader financial landscape saw a dramatic shift as precious metals tumbled from record highs. Gold futures dropped over 4% to $4,340, while silver plunged nearly 8%. This “parabolic” move came to a halt after the CME raised margin requirements for silver trading.
This commodity crash has triggered a debate among investors. Some see the gold and silver plunge as a warning of tightening liquidity. Others believe the sell-off in traditional “safe havens” will drive capital into Bitcoin. With China set to restrict silver exports in January, industrial demand remains a major factor for the metals market heading into 2026.
Glassnode data shows that many recent Bitcoin buyers are currently “underwater.” The short-term holder cost basis sits at $99,900, well above current spot prices. This creates a potential “sell wall” near $100,000 as investors look to exit at breakeven.
On the downside, the “true market mean” provides a valuation floor at $81,100. This level is considered a deep support zone that historically holds during local corrections. For long-term investors, the aggregate cost basis of the entire supply—known as the realized price—remains much lower at $56,200.
Despite the current sideways price action, long-term forecasts remain bullish. Financial institutions like Standard Chartered and Bernstein have set a price target of $150,000 for Bitcoin in 2026. This prediction is fueled by rising institutional adoption through spot ETFs and global economic uncertainty.History suggests that 2026 could mirror 2019, which saw a 95% gain following a bear cycle. As central banks continue to diversify away from the U.S. dollar, the “digital gold” narrative for Bitcoin is being put to the ultimate test.
Bitcoin’s long-term outlook
Bitcoin’s current consolidation is typical for weekends, when liquidity is low and price movements are muted. Michaël van de Poppe, a well-known analyst, notes that repeated tests of support near $86,500 could weaken that level. If buyers fail to defend this zone, Bitcoin could retrace to $83,000 or even $80,000. On the upside, reclaiming $90,000 and surpassing the 20-day moving average could pave the way for a move toward $105,000.
Glassnode data shows Bitcoin trading near its active investor mean of $87,700. Short-term holders are underwater, creating resistance near $99,900. The true market mean sits at $81,100, while the realized price of $56,200 reflects the network’s long-term cost basis. This suggests Bitcoin’s sideways action may continue until new catalysts trigger larger moves. Traders are also watching global macro factors, including interest rate expectations and geopolitical tensions, which could influence Bitcoin’s next directional breakout.
Which Altcoins are gaining momentum amid bitcoin consolidation?
XRP, Dogecoin, and Solana have outperformed Bitcoin in the past 24 hours. XRP rose 1.1%, Solana 1.3%, and Dogecoin 1.3%, showing stronger appetite for altcoins during low-volume trading. Analysts point out that altcoins often benefit from weekend liquidity imbalances, providing short-term gains while Bitcoin remains range-bound.
XRP is maintaining steady market resilience as the year draws to a close, trading at $1.85. While the asset currently sits below its 50-day moving average of $2.07, its massive $104 billion market cap and strong support above the yearly low of $1.61 highlight its stability. The recent approval and launch of spot XRP ETFs have provided a significant boost, with inflows surpassing $1.25 billion over the last two months, helping XRP outperform Bitcoin during specific year-end trading windows.
Dogecoin continues to lead the memecoin sector with a valuation of $0.123, even as it faces a slight pullback from recent local highs. Though it is trading below its 50-day average of $0.144, it managed to post 1.3% daily gains in thin trading, outpacing several market majors. Analysts remain focused on a potential breakout above the $0.18 resistance level, which could reignite momentum for the $17.9 billion asset as it enters 2026. Despite its inherent volatility, DOGE remains a top choice for retail investors, often serving as a barometer for high-risk sentiment in the broader market.
Solana remains the standout leader among high-throughput blockchains, currently priced at $123.38 amid typical end-of-year profit-taking. Despite a 1.43% decline today and trading below its 50-day average of $134, the network continues to see robust institutional interest and growth in decentralized finance (DeFi) total value locked. Market forecasts suggest a target of $195 to $200 by late 2026 if the platform can clear key resistance at $144. With a $57.5 billion market cap, Solana’s focus on scalability and low transaction costs continues to attract developers, positioning it as a primary competitor to Ethereum’s dominant ecosystem.
Why are precious metals driving macro investment trends?
Precious metals remain in focus as investors seek traditional hedges amid inflation concerns and worries over long-term purchasing power. Gold surged 67% year-to-date, supported by central bank purchases and a weaker U.S. dollar. Silver has seen a historic rally of roughly 150% in 2025, driven by industrial demand and supply deficits. Nearly 60% of silver is used in electronics, solar panels, and electric vehicles, making it hghly sensitive to market disruptions.
Recent price swings show that traders are cautious after parabolic gains. Gold futures have dropped over 4% from highs near $4,340, and silver tumbled nearly 8% after touching $80 per ounce. Margin requirement hikes and export restrictions from China are adding volatility. Experts warn that metals this stretched can face sharp reversals, echoing trends from 1979–1980. Investors are carefully watching how central banks, geopolitical developments, and industrial demand will continue to shape metals’ trajectory in early 2026.
FAQs:
Q: Why are altcoins like XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin outperforming Bitcoin? A: Altcoins gained 1.1%–1.3% over the past 24 hours while Bitcoin rose 0.5%. Weekend trading liquidity is thin, allowing smaller-cap coins to see sharper moves. Diversification among crypto investors and technical setups are driving short-term gains in these altcoins.
Q: How are precious metals impacting crypto market sentiment?
A: Gold is up 67% and silver roughly 150% in 2025, attracting investor attention. Supply deficits, industrial demand, and export restrictions, especially from China, influence market dynamics. Investors weigh traditional hedges against Bitcoin, affecting crypto inflows and trading patterns.