The Kazakhstan embassy in Portugal organized the “Steppe and Ocean” dinner a few days ago, with the arrival of Artem Kantsev, a chef Kazakh, and almost at the same time the Portuguese embassy in Astana announced that tenor Luís Gomes gave a concert at the National University of Arts of Kazakhstan, in which he included songs by Vianna da Motta. But if cultural diplomacy is important to bring the two countries closer together – one on the western edge of Europe, a small nation open to the Atlantic, the other in the heart of Eurasia, the largest country in the world without an oceanic coastline -, the political and economic aspect of the relationship has an added importance, even if worked in the European context, and it is significant that Portuguese protagonists play a first-level role, such as António Costa, who this Thursday meets with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.
It is in his capacity as president of the European Council that Costa travels to Astana, to celebrate ten years of the partnership between the EU and Kazakhstan, and it is curious that another Portuguese, Durão Barroso, played an essential role in the launch of that same partnership, as president of the European Commission.
In 2023, during the Astana International Forum, I interviewed Durão Barroso, who was one of the main speakers and, visibly, one of the most appreciated by Kazakhs. The man who was president of the European Commission between 2004 and 2014, after having headed the Portuguese government, made a point of claiming this role in strengthening relations, by affirming the geopolitical importance that the largest of the Central Asian republics gives to the EU: “It was, in fact, in the European Commission that I chaired – and that is why they invite me so often to come here to Astana – that we launched the Reinforced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement between European Union and Kazakhstan, with the president at the time, Nursultan Narzabayev, and which came into force in 2020. Kazakhstan’s vision – which is, as we know, a former Soviet republic – is to not be so dependent on either Russia or China and to be increasingly closer to Europe.”
Durão Barroso then explained the bet of the Kazakh leadership, initially by Nazarbayev, the father of independence in 1991, and today by Tokayev, the reformist president in power since 2019, in the so-called multi-vector diplomacy, a way of minimizing being located between Russia and China and being a landlocked country. Europe is, like the United States, an important partner for Kazakhstan, even if this is not always noticeable. “It is the first investor, but by far, but, normally, at an international level this is not said. Everyone says it is Russia, or China, or the United States, because the data appears by country, but, in fact, the EU has a very important presence here. It is a more discreet presence politically because, precisely, it is not a State, it is not a country as such. But this represents, in fact, a very clear desire on the part of Kazakhstan to be closer to us, and not only to us. They don’t want, although they don’t say it this clearly, to be trapped and, in a certain way, closed between Russia and China.”
Durão Barroso’s reading of the Kazakh desire to seek partners in distant geographies remains relevant, especially since in November, Tokayev and the presidents of four other Central Asian countries participated in a summit in the United States with Donald Trump. The wealth of the Kazakh subsoil clearly attracts an American Administration concerned with diversifying sources of supply, for example, of rare earths, so as not to lose ground against China, in what is already a declared competition for global leadership.
It should be noted that Kazakh multi-vector diplomacy does not involve the hostility of either Russia or China, just think about the attention that Tokayev pays to the relationship with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, two leaders with whom he can discuss directly, even as he masters both the Russian and Chinese languages. Shortly after the meeting with Trump in Washington, the Kazakh president made a stop in Moscow to talk to Putin. And weeks before, he had made a point of accepting Xi’s invitation to attend the parade in Beijing celebrating the Chinese contribution to the Allied victory in the Second World War. It should be noted that in April, in Samarkand, in neighboring Uzbekistan, the first EU-Central Asia summit was held, which brought together the host country, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
In a recent conversation with Peter Frankopan, the British historian who gained celebrity a decade ago with the book As rotas da it (published almost simultaneously with Xi’s announcement in Astana of the One Belt, One Road Initiative), to the question whether the largest landlocked country in the world is of great value to the point of being fought over by the Americans, Chinese and Russians because of its geographic location or because of its mineral resources, he replied: “I would look at it another way: from the point of view of Kazakhstan. A bit like someone trying to get the best price for their goods/house etc., the more people are paying attention, the better. If the US wants to do business with, engage with, or support Kazakhstan, this is excellent news for the country, the president, and its people: the more interest, the better. This allows for better deals to be struck, on better terms. in these countries they are intelligent, thoughtful and always think about the long-term consequences. This makes me a little crazy, because if someone asked if Europe is a place to be contested by Russia, China and the USA, people would think they are crazy.
Following Frankopan’s recommendation, and adding the Europeans to the Americans, the Chinese and the Russians, let the idea of Central Asia as a battlefield of powers be forgotten and the best deals be made in the interests of the Kazakhs and other parties, and that in the case of the EU, sometimes led by former Portuguese prime ministers, this is obviously reflected in Portugal.
In a way, being a country that builds bridges, an ambition of those who govern in Astana, is also the tradition that exists in Lisbon, so globally recognized that in the first quarter of the 21st century a Portuguese man has already been president of the European Commission for ten years, another is completing two terms as secretary general of the UN (António Guterres, another former Portuguese prime minister who went to Kazakhstan in August to inaugurate a United Nations office in Almaty) and a third has just celebrated his first year as president of the Council European. We will see what Costa will bring from this journey from the ocean to the steppe.
Deputy Director of Diário de Notícias