“Poland is on the brink of armed conflict”

These statements occurred in the context of the Munich Security Conference (MSC) last weekend. In parallel to the forum, the debate has been opened on the creation of a European nuclear deterrence initiative in the face of the Russian threat and doubts about the support of the Trump Administration and the continuity of NATO.

Nawrocki won Poland’s presidential election on June 1 with the support of the ultra-conservative nationalist Law and Justice party. He has declared himself “a great defender of Poland joining the nuclear project” since “Russia can react aggressively to anything,” he added.

He proposes to start working respecting international legislation. “Our country is on the border with an armed conflict. Russia’s imperialist and aggressive attitude towards Poland is well known,” he said.

This is not the first time that a Polish leader has expressed interest in incorporating nuclear weapons into his defense. When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, its president Andrzej Duda He offered the territory of his country to station North American atomic weapons.

“Poland is ready to host NATO nuclear devices,” Duda declared in 2024 regarding Russian militarization in Kaliningrad and Belarus.

Other European leaders have shown in recent days a change of attitude regarding military policy: without mentioning the word ‘rearmament’, Evika SilinaPrime Minister of Latvia, said at the Munich Conference that “nuclear deterrence can give us new opportunities.”

At the same time, Germany and France They have begun talks to develop a joint nuclear deterrence strategy that will serve to protect the continent in case it does not have help from Washington. Chancellor Merz confirmed at the Conference that he had “started talking to President Macron” about the matter.

The project aims to be integrated into NATO’s defensive strategy and wants to ensure that there are no differences in the security levels of the different European territories.

The global nuclear arsenal

The latest report of Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimates that in January 2025 there were 12,241 nuclear warheads in the world, of which some 9,614 are part of military arsenals prepared for potential use.

Of them, 3,912 are deployed on airborne missiles. 2,100 are on immediate operational alert. Most of the world’s nuclear arsenal is in the hands of the United States and Russia. Both have just over 5,000 heads each, although China, with about 600, is producing at an accelerated pace.