After almost six hours, the Ukrainian and Russian delegations that went to Geneva to negotiate the conditions of a possible energy ceasefire decided to end the meeting and continue talking this Wednesday.
Sources close to the Russian envoys told the agency France-Press that the talks had been “tense”, something that on the other hand is to be expected between two countries that have been fighting arm in arm for almost four years and that met just hours after a new massive attack by Russian drones and missiles on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Precisely one of Ukraine’s objectives in these meetings, which continue those in Istanbul at the end of last year and those in Abu Dhabi at the beginning of the month, is to reach a ceasefire in these attacks.
It does not seem like it will be easy, since the Russians know that the cold to which they condemn millions of civilians throughout the country is one of their few assets when it comes to negotiating.
It is true that Vladimir Putinin deference to the request of Donald Trumpagreed to a four-day mini-truce just two weeks ago, but it’s very likely that this time he wants something in return.
Although Marco RubioSecretary of State, stated during his visit to Hungary and Slovakia that controversial issues were becoming less and less and, therefore, peace was closer, the truth is that we are talking about vital issues for both sides and on which it is difficult for them to reach an agreement.
Trump wants Volodímir Zelenski “move” and be able to win the medal of a ceasefire before the summer, but everything right now depends on the territorial concessions that Russia demands and that Ukraine, obviously, refuses to accept.
Defense guarantees
This same Monday, the Ukrainian president stated in an interview with The Atlantic that it was not acceptable for the aggressor, that is, Russia, to obtain any territorial gains.
That is his position and he has reasons to maintain it: giving up the rest of Donetsk, as the Kremlin wants, would be suicide in the medium term for his country.
Right now, there are few places in the world more fortified than Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. The Russians have been trying to surround this military conglomerate for four years without any success. Why should the Ukrainians give it to them?
This concession would not only be seen as a weakness, but would open a clear path for Russia to the Dnieper River in case it wanted to return to hostilities, something that there is no doubt in kyiv.
That is why it is so important for Zelensky and his government to obtain reliable security guarantees from the West and, above all, from the United States.
Barack Obama He did nothing in 2014 and 2015, when Russia unilaterally annexed Crimea and occupied much of Donetsk and Lugansk with paramilitary forces. History cannot be repeated.
In that sense, another of Ukraine’s objectives in these negotiations is to commit Trump to defending his country for at least thirty or fifty years.
What no one agrees on is how. Zelensky refuses to simply hand over the territory that is still in his hands, but he would accept turning it into a demilitarized zone that would de facto separate the two countries. The issue is who will protect that demilitarized zone… and the Kremlin has already said that it will not accept troops from any NATO country.
Vladimir Medinsky
The root problem is that Steve Witkoff y Jared Kushnerthose sent by Trump to Geneva for both these negotiations and those taking place with Iran to regularize its nuclear program, see this as a commercial transaction while Russia sees it as an existential issue.
The current White House is convinced that everything can be resolved with an exchange: Zelensky gives up the Donbas, calls elections… and Putin remains calm for the rest of his days. However, it is not that easy.
Proof of this is that Russia has chosen Medinsky as head of its delegation, a man who comes from the world of culture and who is famous in the Kremlin for having instilled in Putin a good part of his imperialist delusions.
Medinsky was already representing Russia in the talks in Istanbul, which saw no progress and in which he spent hours talking about history and supposed almost divine rights over the so-called Novorossiya or “New Russia”, the territory that goes from Kharkiv to Odessa and covers practically all of eastern and southern Ukraine.
It is impossible to negotiate with Medinsky, say the Ukrainians, who have brought two heavyweights of their diplomacy and military structure to Geneva as Kirilo BudánovZelensky’s right-hand man and former head of Ukrainian intelligence, and Rustem Umerovcurrent head of the National Security Council.
In the previous Abu Dhabi talks, the Russian envoy was Igor Kostiukov, head of its military intelligence. With Igor Kostyukovdialogue was possible and at least an agreement was reached for a prisoner exchange.
Kostyukov is a military man and understands what war is. This is not the case with Medinsky. This is not even the case, of course, with Witkoff or Kushner, real estate businessmen, although the latter did play an important role during the first Trump Administration in the negotiation of the Abraham Accords.
In that context, no big news is expected for this Wednesday. The theoretical positions are too far apart and Russia does not want to know anything about the practices. The word “give in” is not in their vocabulary.