“If we don’t sign with Mercosur in the next few days, it will be dead.” This is how a senior EU diplomat is in statements to EL ESPAÑOL about the fate of the largest trade agreement that Brussels has negotiated so far (it would create a market of 700 million inhabitants), in a long and tortuous process that It has taken 25 years.
With just a few meters left to cross the finish line, the EU pact with the bloc formed by Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay – whose main promoters are the President of the Government, Pedro Sanchezand the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz— is on the verge of total collapse due to the delaying maneuvers of Paris.
While the president of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyenis preparing to fly to Brasilia and sign the agreement next Saturday, December 20, the French Prime Minister, Sébastien Lecornuhas activated a last minute offensive to blow it up: His last excuse is that he needs more time, so he asks postpone the signing until 2026.
“It is clear that the conditions are not met for the EU Council to vote on authorizing the signing of the agreement. “France asks that the December deadline be postponed in order to continue the work and obtain legitimate protection measures for our European agriculture,” Lecornu claims in a statement.
On the opposite side, Spain and Germany press for the pact with Mercosur to be signed before the end of the year. They consider it a strategic priority, since it will allow the EU to open new markets to offset the increase in tariffs decreed by Trump and, at the same time, reduce dependence on China in key products such as rare earths.
“Mercosur is very important for us. The Danish presidency is taking a very firm position and we are supporting that momentum so that it can move forward,” explain government sources.
In Moncloa they also point out that the countries of the Latin American bloc have conveyed their impatience to bring the agreement to a successful conclusion. The EU believes that the Brazilian Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva He is the only one who has sufficient authority in Mercosur to move forward with the agreement, an opportunity that will pass when he leaves the presidency of the bloc at the end of the year.
The president of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, together with the presidents of Uruguay, Luis Lacalle; Argentina, Javier Milei; Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva; and Paraguay, Santiago Pena, when the agreement was announced in December 2024
“At a time when the United States is closing down, the EU must act as a bastion of trade and cooperation. This will be increasingly important in the future,” says another European diplomat outraged by France’s attempted boycott.
In reality, Paris is trying to gather a blocking minority to overthrow the agreement with Mercosur. Poland and Hungary have already announced that they will also vote against, while Austria and Belgium abstain. But with these countries it is not enough to stop the pact.
The decisive vote goes to Italy, which until now has moved in ambiguity. The prime minister Giorgia Meloni he keeps his cards to himself, but if in the end he opts for ‘no’ it will cause the definitive shipwreck of the pact with Mercosur. Hence the motto in Brussels is to move forward with the utmost caution.
France — which has always rejected the pact with Mercosur, considering it a threat to its livestock sector — admits that the Community Executive has responded in recent months to some of its concerns. First, with an agricultural safeguard clausewhich will be approved this Tuesday by the European Parliament.
Secondly, Brussels has announced a reinforcement of phytosanitary controls at the border and in third countries from 2026 to guarantee food security. Finally, Von der Leyen has promised to introduce ‘mirror clauses’ with the aim of ensuring equality in production conditions.
“However, These advances remain incomplete and they must be specified and applied in an operational, solid and effective manner in order to see and assess their full effects,” alleges the French prime minister in a statement released late on Sunday.
The Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, has the fate of the agreement with Mercosur in her hands
Von der Leyen’s team has also responded forcefully to the umpteenth attempt at a French boycott. “In the opinion of the Commission, signing the agreement now is of crucial importanceboth from an economic, diplomatic or geopolitical point of view,” underlined its Commerce spokesperson, Olof Gill.
“The Commission has listened carefully to European farmersto consumers, to Member States and to MEPs, and has acted decisively by responding to all concerns and requests with effective complementary measures,” insists the spokesperson.
The Community Executive alleges that the agreement with Mercosur – which is based in the exchange of beef and Latin American agricultural products for cars and machinery from the European Union—will save European exporters €4 billion a year in tariffs.
“But the importance of the pact goes far beyond the economic benefits. It is relevant for the world and for the global economy, because it would send a clear signal that Rules-based agreements continue to offer tremendous value and a safe haven to move forward in such complicated times,” Gill concluded.
Whether the pact with Mercosur comes to fruition or falls apart will largely depend on the choreography of the coming days. After this Tuesday’s vote in Strasbourg, the Danish presidency of the EU plans to close an agreement with the European Parliament on Wednesday and then submit the agreement to a vote of the governments.
The central scenario handled by Brussels is that this issue ends up on the agenda of the summit of European leaders to be held on July 18. “It is an intelligent strategy because then Italy will not be able to continue hiding behind France,” say the sources consulted.