Trump concentrates 75,000 men on Iran, the largest military deployment in 15 years for a long war campaign

What began as a pressure tool to negotiate the dismantling of the Iranian nuclear program has transformed in a matter of days into a sustained increase in American destroyers, warships and fighters in the region, ready for “a major offensive,” according to sources consulted by the digital Axios.

Experts take for granted that the concentration of forces is the prelude to a military operation.

Washington sent its aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, which carries 90 aircraft and a crew of 5,680 people, to the region at the end of January, along with its escort group, which includes three destroyers equipped with guided missiles.

It was the first warning. A show of force accompanied by the verbal threat of Donald Trumpwho threatened to carry out an action similar to the one that resulted in the capture of Nicolas Maduro in Caracas, as long as the Islamic Republic did not sit down to negotiate “immediately” on the development of its nuclear program.

“A huge Navy is heading to Iran. It moves quickly, with great power, enthusiasm and determination. As with Venezuela, it is ready, willing and able to quickly accomplish its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary,” the US president wrote then on his Truth Social platform.

It wasn’t the first time Trump flirted with the idea. The White House tenant had previously threatened military action if the Revolutionary Guards did not end the violent repression of the protests that broke out in December and left more than 3,000 protesters dead, according to figures confirmed by the regime.

The aid promised to the “Iranian patriots” that, according to Trump, “was on the way” never arrived, to the disappointment of the hard wing of the opposition to the ayatollahs, led from their exile in Maryland by Reza Pahlavithe son of the last shah of Persia.

Diplomatic route

The American president softened his tone last week, when indirect negotiations with the Islamic Republic began in Muscat, first, and then in Geneva. A complex diplomatic process that, as in the case of Ukraine, is controlled by his son-in-law, Jared Kushnerand his special envoy, Steve Witkoffa profile seasoned in the Abraham Accords and a amateur.

In parallel to the negotiations, however, the United States advanced its military deployment in the Middle East. Just a few days ago, its troops repositioned several refueling tanker planes, fighters and other Air Force assets based in the United Kingdom in the region, according to sources consulted by CNN.

The most recent sign that the United States could be preparing for a large-scale operation was advanced a few days ago The New York Timeswhen he reported that North American troops had sent the aircraft carrier USS Gerald Ford, the largest warship in the world, to the Gulf of Oman, involved in the attack that culminated in the capture of Maduro.

“We will need it if there is no deal with Iran,” Trump justified last week aboard Air Force One. “An aircraft carrier is certainly a dangerous device,” the supreme leader conceded. Ali Jameneiwho returned the provocation: “But more dangerous than the aircraft carrier is the weapon that can send it to the bottom of the sea.”

The aircraft carrier USS Gerald Ford, which until just a few days ago was deployed in the Caribbean Sea, will not arrive in the region for two or three weeks, but it will not do so alone. Their shipment coincides with the increase in F-15 fighters and EA-18 electronic warfare aircraft stationed at the Muwaffaq Salti air base in Jordan.

military route

Since the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, which led to the brutal Israeli invasion of the Strip, the United States has significantly expanded its military presence in the Middle East.

The number of troops deployed at the eight US military bases in the region ranges between 34,000 and 50,000, according to data from the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, a think tank based in Washington. A figure to which are added the tens of thousands of troops accompanying the operation.

Always according Axiosthe campaign being prepared by the United States has the assistance of Israel, and promises to be much broader in scope than the twelve-day war in June last year, which Washington finally joined to try to destroy Iran’s underground nuclear facilities, without success.

The offensive would no longer be surgical, as it was then, but massive. That would explain the recent visit to the White House by the Israeli prime minister. Benjamin Netanyahualways hostile to the idea of ​​negotiating with the ayatollahs.

Mike PompeoSecretary of State during Trump’s first term, assured this Wednesday that his former boss “He’s not going to do what the president did. [Barack] Obama: sign a weak agreement that allows the Iranians to continue developing their nuclear program”.

Not in vain, the Republican president dreams of promoting a change of regime. It is a desire that does not hide. “It would be the best thing that could happen,” he acknowledged last week. “For 47 years they’ve been talking and talking and talking. In the meantime, we’ve lost a lot of lives.”

This Tuesday, however, the Iranian Foreign Minister, Abás Araghchiassured that the parties meeting in Geneva had reached “a general understanding on a set of guiding principles”, that is, an agreement to continue negotiating, and that the talks were on the right track.

“This does not mean that we can quickly reach an agreement, but at least the path has begun,” said the head of Iranian diplomacy, who seeks to see the severe sanctions regime that weighs down its economy lifted.

From the outside, no one understood the optimistic tone of the Iranian representative, although the White House spokeswoman, Caroline Leavittagreed with him this Wednesday when he assured that there had been progress at the Geneva dialogue table, and that they expected Araghchi to present news to the Oman mediators within two weeks.

However, as he explains in conversation with this newspaper Mehran Kamravaprofessor of Government at Georgetown University in Qatar, “the Americans have wanted, in a way, for the outcome of the negotiations to be predetermined and, furthermore, the Iranians and the Trump Administration have very different conceptions of what negotiations are.”

“Iranians need, or like, to talk, discuss and examine all aspects of an issue. On the other hand, Trump wants a quick, decisive and striking resolution, and an agreement,” explains the specialist. “He is not interested in negotiations, he is interested in the final result, the agreement.”

The White House not only wants to negotiate the evolution of the nuclear program; He also wants to put on the table the Iranian missile program and the Islamic Republic’s support for Hezbollah, Hamas and other related militias in the region, such as Yemen’s Houthi rebels.

These are issues that Iran does not even consider discussing because, as Khamenei himself expressed, “any country that lacks deterrent weapons will be crushed under the feet of its enemies.”

Furthermore, it would not be the first time that Trump has blown up a round of negotiations. He would repeat the same script from June last year, when he launched Operation Midnight Hammer, directed against the Iranian missile arsenals and nuclear infrastructures of Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz. The action, coordinated with Israel, delayed the development of its nuclear program, but did not dismantle it.

The Islamic Republic prepares its forces to respond to any eventuality. “We have reviewed our weaknesses and corrected them. If a war is imposed on us, we will respond,” said the head of Iran’s National Security Council, Ali Larijanion the Qatari television network Al Jazeera.

For this reason, at the beginning of the week, the Revolutionary Guards launched a series of naval maneuvers in the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime route through which 20% of the world’s oil trade crosses, whose forces closed for several hours this Monday citing “security reasons.”

This Thursday, Iran will also carry out war games together with Russia in the Sea of ​​Oman in order to “strengthen maritime security and deepen relations between the navies of both countries,” announced this Wednesday the spokesman for the Iranian Navy, Rear Admiral Hassan Maghsoudlooin statements collected by the agency Tasnim.

The exercises raise the risk of an incident similar to the one in early February, when a US F-35 fighter shot down an Iranian Shahed-136 drone that “approached aggressively” and with “unclear intention” to its aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln.