Trump could bomb “in the next 24 hours” while Erdogan tries to contain him

“All signs indicate that a US attack is imminent, but that is also the way this Administration behaves to keep everyone on alert. Unpredictability is part of the strategy,” the Western military officer told Reuters.

The news comes shortly after the Tehran regime announced that it will execute one of the protesters in the coming hours. This is the 26-year-old young man Erfan Soltaniwho was arrested a few days ago in Fardis, Karaj, during the protests, which have left thousands of people dead in the Islamic Republic. Trump would thus fulfill his promise to attack Iran if the ayatollahs “hanged the protesters.”

At the same time, Riyadh has informed Tehran that it will not allow its airspace or territory to be used to attack Iran, the news agency reported on Wednesday. Agence France-Presse two sources close to the Saudi military, another sign that intervention in Iran may happen in the coming hours.

Erdogan mediation

The Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan is immersed in frantic mediation with the Iranian leader Ali Jameneito prevent Trump from attacking Iran, similar to the one he carried out in Venezuela or even worse.

According to various Turkish sources, Erdoğan’s team would be “negotiating on behalf of Trump”, and the direct channels open between Tehran and Washington would have been broken on Tuesday night. The objective of this negotiation was to achieve great change and reforms in the ayatollahs’ regime, which would also include energy. A Turkish observer told this media that Trump “could attack and assassinate the ayatollah” at any time.

On Wednesday there were a series of telephone exchanges between the Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hakan Fidanand his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchiin an attempt to resume dialogue and negotiations and de-escalate tension.

The volatile Trump has been inciting Iranians to take to the streets since Tuesday, although the protests have decreased drastically since Thursday. According to HRANA (Human Rights Activists News Agency), a source considered reliable, the protests have left at least 2,571 dead, and tens of thousands injured.

Reuters confirms that Tehran is moving through regional channels, including Turkey, to deter an escalation, at the same time that Trump has increased the pressure by threatening violent action if the mullahs’ regime executes the protester. The situation on the border between Türkiye and Iran is on high alert and diplomatic activity is frenetic.

The talks between Ankara and Tehran could also be an interested bluff on the part of Erdoğan, who is trying to gain international relevance for his public, and who also tried – unsuccessfully – to mediate between Washington and Caracas before the capture of Nicolas Maduro.

But if they are true, the Turkish leader could demand economic, defense or Syria counterparts from the United States. It would also achieve border stability and immigration control, with less risk of overflowing its eastern border with a new massive wave of Iranian refugees, who would join the 200,000 – although there is no official figure – that have been accumulating since the Green Movement of 2009 and the 2022 protests over the murder of Mahsa Aminiwhich left about 500 dead.

Fidan himself met on Wednesday in Ankara with the United States ambassador and special envoy for Syria, Tom Barrackin a context presented as simultaneous diplomatic traffic with Iran. The digital SuperHaberas well as the agency Anadolu or the channel TRTthey quote foreign ministry sources who claim that Erdoğan would be mediating between the United States and Iran.

Evacuation of US troops

The possibility of an intervention by Washington would be reaffirmed by the evacuation of its troops from Qatar and other countries in the region. According to the Pakistani newspaper The NewsIslamabad has reinforced security measures on its border with Iran and paralyzed commercial and passenger traffic in the area.

Despite the parallels and closeness in time, there are many differences between Venezuela and Iran, as he pointed out to France24 the expert on Iran and Latin America Raffaele Mauriellouniversity professor in Tehran: Trump is applying maximum pressure, similar to Venezuela, but the Persian country has a much larger population (almost 93 million Iranians compared to 28 million Venezuelans) and more powerful and prepared security forces, such as the Pasdaran or Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), with some 180,000 troops, intelligence and security capacity, and interests in economic, cultural and media sectors.

“To whom it may concern, I kindly suggest avoiding being macho with the Islamic Republic, it is not recommended,” the Italian academic joked in his X account.

The Iranian regime has made threatening comments against Washington along these same lines. The Ayatollahs’ dictatorship still has capacity and “is demonstrating” that it can control the protests, although at the cost of losing legitimacy, says this expert, who attributes the economic weakness and the precarious standard of living of Iranians, “as illustrated by my own salary,” to the harsh sanctions imposed by Washington.

The Iranian political scientist Saeid Golkarfrom the University of Tennessee, acknowledges that the sanctions have damaged the economy of the Islamic Republic, but adds that the legitimate complaints of the protesters about the shortage of water, electricity, pollution and the very negative economic situation is also attributable to the “incompetence” of the regime.

The Iranian dictatorship is greatly weakened by internal pressures – protests – and external pressures, such as the war with Israel in the summer, the US bombing of nuclear facilities, as well as the extreme pressure that Trump is exerting.

For his part, the Iranian expert Farzan Sabet (Global Governance Center) explained the DW It is expected that the White House will impose a broader range of phased intervention than the classic bombing, including economic pressure with secondary tariffs, cyber operations (for example, attacking state media used to terrorize the population these days by showing images of the dead), or a “symbolic strike” against an important target, for example “the main leaders” or “facilities used for repression”, as part of a longer campaign.

Sabet does not believe that there will be a US invasion, but rather a gradual intervention with the possibility of a limited and sustained attack. He considers that a large-scale military intervention would have very poor prospects due to its population and the presence of twelve security forces, including the regular army and the Revolutionary Guard.

Regarding the 25% tariffs announced by Trump against Tehran’s allies, this analyst believes that it will be difficult to impose them on actors such as China, Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates or India.

What if Khamenei falls?

Many are wondering about the alternatives to Khamenei if the regime falls. Observers don’t see any, so the highest probability would be a takeover by the Revolutionary Guard. In this sense, the most plausible scenario would be a change within the framework of the Islamic Republic or a militarization in the style of Pakistan or Egypt, Sabet predicts.

Although some of the protesters demanded the return of the son of the deposed Shah of Persia, international observers consider that it would be a mistake, since the prince Reza Pahlavi He lacks the necessary experience to run the country and has lived abroad for fifty years.

The Iranians have been burying their dead for days. Faced with the regime’s brutal response, the demonstrations have deflated since Thursday, when they lost communication with the outside world due to the regime’s intervention on the internet and social networks.

The Spanish-Iranian analyst Anahita Nassir From Barcelona, ​​he expressed the anguish of his relatives in Iran at not being able to communicate.

This cut also prevents extracting evidence of the massacre, breaks coordination between protesters and increases repressive impunity.

Nassir describes brutal repression, but also a population that “is no longer afraid, has passed the threshold of fear, because they have nothing to lose, they have everything to gain.”

It demands political and moral support, external pressure and selective sanctions that do not punish the civilian population: the Iranians “need to continue talking about their struggle, to legitimize their role as the main actor in their own future, they are more than prepared and they do not need anyone to come and kick out a bastard.”

Since the ayatollahs came to power in 1979, Iranians have staged a dozen massive protests against the regime, reaching their peak in 2009, which originated from electoral fraud, with a participation of about two million, which has surpassed the current ones, in which young people, workers, merchants, urbanites and peasants participate, the widest social range in its history.