Last Monday, a Donald Trump very irritated, he came forward on social networks about information collected by Axioshe Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post. In it, it was stated that the chief of the General Staff, Daniel ‘Raizin’ Cainewould have shown concern about the consequences of an attack against Iran.
Trump assured that the decision had not yet been made, that he was confident that an agreement could still be reached, but that, if in the end there was not one and a military solution was chosen, Caine would support it without hesitation.
The curious thing was that the press did not affirm in any case that Caine was going to refuse to carry out Trump’s orders. It was not even said that Caine was opposed to possible military action.
They simply mentioned their reservations in this regard, especially the possibility that the conflict would drag on and the United States would become involved in a new remote war, like those in Afghanistan and Iraq, something that MAGA followers have always viewed with enormous suspicion.
The exaggeration in Trump’s response is a good example of the pressures to which he is being subjected.
On the one hand, Israel continues to support an attack that completely ends the Iranian nuclear program – something that, in principle, had already been achieved according to Trump himself on June 22 of last year – and media hawks close to his Administration, such as Mark Levininfluential journalist Fox Newsinsist that it is necessary to force a regime change in Tehran.
On the other hand, as we said, there is almost the entire Democratic Party and the part of the Republican Party that is tired of adventures abroad.
In fact, one of Trump’s great electoral attractions was his supposed ability to reach agreements and thus prevent the United States from getting involved in endless conflicts abroad.
Witkoff does not understand why Iran does not give in
In the middle, Trump himself remains in his labyrinth. He has stretched the military machine so hard to force the ayatollahs to reach an agreement on his terms that he now does not have many other alternatives.
own Steve Witkoffomnipresent special envoy for all negotiations, lamented on Sunday that Iran did not give in despite the fact that the US military deployment can only be compared to that which led to the invasion of Iraq in 2003.
It seems that the White House understood that such pressure, together with the regime’s internal problems, would be enough for Iran to capitulate, but it has not done so.
And it doesn’t look like he’s going to do it, although the Foreign Minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchistated on his X account that he was ready to continue negotiations in Geneva this Thursday in the hope of “reaching a fair and equal agreement.”
Iran insists that its goal is to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, but neither Israel nor the United States believe it.
They understand that the true purpose of the entire program, with the corresponding enrichment of uranium, is to build nuclear weapons with which to spread terror throughout the Middle East.
It must be taken into account that Iran is a power driven by religious fanaticism, a combination that makes anyone’s hair stand on end.
Four or five days of margin
Since his first term, Trump’s position regarding Iran has been clear: he has always defended that it cannot have any type of nuclear program, neither peaceful nor military.
For this reason, he disengaged himself from the agreement he had reached as soon as he had the opportunity. Barack Obama in 2015 and, therefore, in this time, it has intensified the sanctions, it has ordered the assassination of the general Qassem Soleimanihead of the Quds Force, and has authorized, as we said, Operation Midnight Hammer that allegedly annihilated the facilities of the Iranian nuclear program.
Now, it is one thing to sanction, another thing to launch a precision attack… and quite another to enter into a war, for which, from the outset, you would need support from Congress that would not be easy to obtain.
That is where Caine’s doubts come in… and that of Israeli intelligence, which considers that, despite the enormous contingent deployed in the vicinity of Iran, the United States would only have four or five days of intense bombing.
If in that time, he fails to damage the regime enough for it to surrender, what will be the next step?
Sending troops seems ruled out, but even those already on the ground in Syria, Iraq, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates or Saudi Arabia would be threatened by a possible Iranian counterattack.
How would Trump sell his MAGA audience on the fact that his inability to reach a deal resulted in American soldier casualties? The flag-draped coffins transported from the Middle East seemed like a thing of the past, and Trump’s enormous unpopularity would be increased if history were to repeat itself.
Russia and China, after the rearmament of Iran
Of course, Iran knows all this. He knows the weaknesses of every democratic country whose government depends, in large part, on its public opinion.
While the ayatollahs can massacre their own people every time they take to the streets to protest, Trump has to measure his actions as the various counterpowers allow him.
In that sense, from Tehran, they are also playing carrot and stick: while Araghchi announces the diplomatic search for an agreement, other leaders close to Ali Jamenei They threaten something resembling a “holy war.”
In this context, the purchases agreed with China and Russia of important military material must be framed.
Beijing is willing to provide Iran with hypersonic anti-ship missiles, while Moscow signed the sale of hundreds of portable missile launchers last December.
The longer Trump takes to launch his announced attack, the more time the regime will have to arm itself and better defend itself. The question is whether Trump really wants to bomb Iran or not and with what justification.
It is one thing to show your intention to do something – this already happened during the January street protests, when Trump publicly pledged to help opponents – and another to do it.
The US military is far superior to the Iranian one in all aspects, as demonstrated on June 22 and as recently demonstrated with the capture of Nicolas Maduro. Another thing is that it is so superior as to be able to overthrow a regime that has been in power for almost fifty years without alternative plans and without substantial casualties.
The latest rumors suggest that Trump could announce an attack coinciding with his State of the Union address in Congress.
The irony is that this speech coincides with the four years of war between Russia and Ukraine. A war that was also prepared to last five or six days and that remains stagnant on the Donetsk border.
The example should be enough to weigh very well the possibilities of success in case of betting on military means.