The theocratic regime born from the 1979 revolution is going through its most critical days.
It is not the first crisis that has shaken the foundations of the Islamic Republic. The war against Iraq of sadam hussein of the eighties, the opaque succession of the father of the revolution, the ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeinithe emergence of the Green Movement after the 2009 presidential elections, the social outbreak due to the price rise of 2018 or the opposition movement that emerged after the murder at the hands of the police of the young woman’s morals Mahsa Amini in 2022.
None of such magnitude.
The protests that began on December 28 represent the biggest threat to the clerics’ stay in power. Many anticipate the end of an era.
Friedrich Merz he believes he is “witnessing the last days and weeks” of the Islamic Republic. “When a regime can only maintain power through violence, then it is effectively coming to an end. The population is now rising up against this regime,” the German chancellor declared this Tuesday.
The mobilizations germinated in Tehran, where a group of merchants selling imported electronic products were hit by the collapse of the rial, which suddenly lost half its value. The market They closed their stores, went on strike and urged their colleagues to do the same.
The gesture of fatigue from merchants, who generally figure among the regime’s most reliable support bases, found an almost immediate echo in the provinces, in the periphery, in small population centers.
What began as a protest motivated by the precarious economic situation – inflation is close to 50 percent – ended up spreading throughout Iran as the nature of the protests began to encompass other issues.
There were demonstrations in 585 different locations, in 186 cities, in the 31 provinces that divide the country.
Protests in Iran against Ali Khamenei’s regime.
The precedent of 2009
The Iranian historian Rouzbeh Persian considers that, in certain aspects, the 2009 protests – motivated by allegations of fraud in the presidential elections won by the radical Mahmoud Ahmadinejad against the reformist Mir-Hosein Musavi— were more critical of the mullahs because the division of society also fractured the political elite.
“This time, the gap with society is growing, and the system will have to address it with something more constructive than a Kalashnikov, and so far they have not achieved it,” he emphasizes in dialogue with EL ESPAÑOL.
Parsi also concedes that, compared to 2009, “this is no longer only a middle class or urban phenomenon. Compared to 2019 and 2022, the escalation of economic complaints and complaints about a specific issue – such as the mandatory hijab – towards systemic criticism and rejection of the system is faster.”
“In addition,” the historian points out, “state repression is also more violent and is applied from the earliest stages of the protest.”
The Iranian historian also highlights that the protests are taking place “in the shadow of the war started by Israel last June and the American participation in it. Therefore, the risk of external intervention increases the threat perception of the State.”
Iran’s leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Reuters
Repression
Far from addressing the demands of the protesters, the supreme leader Ali Jamenei toughened repression through the police, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard and the Basij, its paramilitary arm made up of volunteers.
At least 2,000 people have died in the protests, the agency announced this Tuesday Reuters citing official sources. The figures that the CBS network is considering are much higher. They speak of 12,000 confirmed fatalities, which could increase to 20,000.
The official media does not even make an effort to hide the bodies. The authorities assume the death of thousands of protesters, whom they consider “terrorists”, “vandals” or “troublemakers” who “wage war on God” and the game of Donald Trump. Which is why they will ask for the death penalty for a good part of the more than 10,000 detained during the protests.
Last Thursday, in addition, the authorities cut off internet access. A communications blackout that continues more than 160 hours later with the aim of preventing the spread of the demonstrations.
“Under control”
The Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abbas Araghchiassured this Monday that “the situation is now under total control.”
“The Islamic Republic is under intense and growing pressure, but its collapse is neither imminent nor inevitable,” he notes. Ali Alfonehresearcher at the Arab Gulf States Institute, who considers that “the current wave of protests rather reflects a progressive narrowing of the regime’s strategic options.”
“Iran’s leadership is approaching a critical crossroads,” warns Alfoneh. “It can opt for a Venezuelan-style accommodation with Trump, which would potentially involve a change in leadership while preserving the regime’s core institutions, or remain on a trajectory of economic deterioration, recurrent mass protests and gradual erosion of cohesion within the security services, a process that could ultimately culminate in the collapse of the regime.”
As Rouzbeh Parsi explains in conversation with this newspaper, “with each round of protests and violent repression, the State loses its control over society.”
Factor Trump
The protesters want to bury the government of the clerics. Some sectors of the opposition, increasingly vocal both inside and outside the country, call for the return of the monarchy and its heir, Reza Pahlaviexiled in the United States. Many remember the years of the Shah with nostalgia, but the vast majority did not even live through them. They are too young.
While redoubling its presence inside Iran, Pahlavi aspires to gain a place in the circle closest to Iran. Donald Trump. For now, as the digital announced this Tuesday Axiosthe crown prince has managed to meet with his special envoy, Steve Witkoff. A secret appointment of enormous relevance.
Trump, for his part, threatens to launch another attack on Iranian soil, the second seven months after trying to destroy the regime’s nuclear facilities within the framework of the Twelve Day War.
For now, the White House occupant has only announced secondary tariffs of 25 percent for countries that negotiate with Iran. A measure that places China, the United Arab Emirates, Türkiye and Iraq in a delicate situation.
But, as advanced The Wall Street Journal and confirmed AxiosTrump is leaning towards launching an attack. His national security team proposes other alternative or complementary options in Iranian territory. Options that go beyond air strikes.
The eventual US military operation could spur demonstrations, but it could also be counterproductive for the opposition. It is not clear what the internal reaction would be.
Pahlavi is committed to attacking as soon as possible. Other voices, like that of the imprisoned activist Narges MohammadiNobel Peace Prize winner, or that of the also awarded filmmaker Jafar Panahithey ask for containment. They consider that regime change has to come from within and has to be peaceful.
In the event of an attack, the Islamic Republic could not count, on this occasion, on the so-called Axis of Resistance, the mosaic of related militias distributed throughout the region that until October 7, 2023 functioned as a shield. Hit by Israel, Hezbollah and Hamas continue to struggle and resist pressure to avoid disarmament. Only the Houthis are still standing.